Chapter 1: The Global Emission Landscape

In the ongoing battle against climate change, it's crucial to recognize that any initiatives aimed at cutting emissions are rendered ineffective if they exclude China. My commitment to researching anthropogenic factors influencing climate change has led me to this conclusion. Similarly, efforts that overlook China’s contributions are likely to yield minimal results. It's also essential to consider India, the world's second-most populous nation.

Why is this significant? Let's engage in a bit of mental exercise.

Most of the energy data referenced here is sourced from national statistical agencies, while population figures up to 2021 are drawn from China’s National Bureau of Statistics and 2022 estimates from the UN World Population Prospects (Medium variant). Unfortunately, India’s data transparency remains poor, limiting our access to reliable statistics.

Insights for Consideration

China and India collectively produce 35% of the world's electricity as of 2021, reflecting their combined population of 36% of the global total. However, their energy production methods differ markedly. China generates nearly five times more electricity than India, yet both nations rely heavily on fossil fuels.

Fossil Fuel Emissions and Power Production

In the near future, China is projected to match the CO2 emissions of the remaining 208 countries combined (excluding India). Together, China and India account for 48% of global emissions from power generation. Remarkably, China increased its electricity consumption during the 2020 pandemic, while the rest of the world saw a downturn.

The relationship between emissions, electricity production, and GDP is intricate and interconnected. Progress in one area invariably influences the others.

Visualizing China's Energy Sources

The accompanying charts are organized into three columns:

1. The left column outlines traditional baseload power sources (further analysis forthcoming).
2. The middle column illustrates baseload power capacity (MW), with the pink line indicating the share of each source in total production.
3. The right column focuses on renewable energy production and capacity.

Notice the upward trend in thermal production, which comprises resources that generate electricity through combustion (coal, gas, biomass). Although biomass is often celebrated, it still contributes to emissions. In 2021, thermal power accounted for 67.4% of China’s total electricity generation, with coal power plants responsible for 64.1%.

The Future of Hydro and Nuclear Energy in China

Hydropower resources are reaching their limits, as constructing dams capable of supporting substantial electricity production is increasingly challenging. While China initiated the Baihetan hydro project—the largest since the Three Gorges Dam—its contribution to overall production remains minimal.

Fortunately, China is advancing in nuclear energy, having announced plans for 166 new reactors in 2021. This sector is gaining momentum due to its relatively young program and strict regulatory standards.

Examining Wind and Solar Energy

Wind and solar energy represent technological advancements, yet they also embody questionable business practices that prey on public naivety regarding climate goals. Despite steady year-on-year growth in installed capacity, the contribution of these sources to overall production remains insignificant.

To clarify, I am not against renewable energy sources (RES), but rather advocate for realistic expectations regarding their capacity to provide baseload coverage. When analyzing RES, it's essential to separate hydropower and biomass, as their inclusion can distort the perceived production figures.

Current Emission Trends and Projections

Wind and solar energy together contribute less than 12% to China's electricity output. The forecast for 2022 indicates a 3.9% year-on-year increase in thermal power generation and a 3% rise in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. This suggests no significant changes in China's energy landscape are expected this year.

The average capacity factor for solar power in China was 12.18% in 2021, while wind power achieved 22.78%. This indicates that even if all global solar capacity were transferred to China, it would still represent a small fraction of the country's electricity production.

The vast majority of photovoltaic (PV) technology production occurs in China, complicating the pursuit of ambitious climate targets.

Realistic Plans for the Future

Achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 appears unattainable with current technologies. Immediate cessation of energy generation growth would be necessary, but this would severely impact GDP and global investments.

The Role of Electric Vehicles (EVs)

China dominates the electric vehicle market, holding over 50% of global EVs. However, this growth doesn't equate to reduced emissions, as electricity consumption for charging is on the rise.

Conclusion

In summary, it's vital to differentiate between information and knowledge, as well as knowledge and wisdom. The challenges of climate change require informed and realistic approaches to energy production and consumption.

The first video features Greta Thunberg's impactful speech at the UN Climate Change COP24 Conference, emphasizing the urgency of climate action.

The second video presents the full documentary "In the Age of AI" by FRONTLINE, exploring the intersection of technology, energy, and climate change.